MKT46310 / case study

The National
Lottery,
2020 to 2022

I walked into The National Lottery as CMO in January 2020. The business had flattened. The brand had drifted. Two years later we were at €1 billion for the first time.

Source: my Marketer of the Year submission, 2022
/01 day one

A vision before
any of the work.

On a cold, damp January morning in 2020, I gathered my new team together to sell them my vision. The previous few years had been difficult for the business. The marketing team had suffered. So had the brand. But I was optimistic. I had spent my first four weeks listening. To the team, to colleagues, to customers. There was a lot to like.

I summarised the vision in three sentences. It went on the wall. It opened every important meeting. Our agencies signed up to it too.

The National Lottery would regain its status as an Irish iconic brand.

We'd make this happen by becoming Ireland's most effective marketers.

We'd become this if we were willing to commit to six specific behaviours.

/02 diagnosis

Three barriers
to growth.

Good strategy must simplify things so everybody can draw a line from the diagnosis to the actions they've been tasked with. These were the three biggest barriers I saw after listening and reading for four weeks.

01

Lost the spark

People were not excited like they used to be about playing the lottery. The emotional pull had faded.

02

Drifted from the brand

They were less attached to the brand. Our product brands had been competing for attention inside the same house, with different colours, taglines, and personalities.

03

Forgot to play

They often simply forgot to play. When people thought about changing their lives, we were not the first thing in their heads.

/03 the six behaviours

Shared and explicit
behaviours.

If there is one thing I truly believe marketing success depends on, it is shared and explicit behaviours. These were printed on our walls and read out at the start of all important meetings. Our agencies signed up to them too.

01

Hard on the work, easy on each other

We demand high quality work. We can't relax that criteria. But we are nice to each other.

02

Work ethic

We work hard. We won't be successful without this.

03

Critical thinking

We ask questions. We question the assumptions we believe to be true. We look for evidence. Healthy scepticism, not cynicism.

04

Humility

We don't know what is right. We should care far less about who is right. Ego gets in the way. It starts with the team.

05

Strong opinions, weakly held

We change our minds when evidence suggests we're wrong. Not just ok, but demanded of everybody.

06

Share early and often

We share our work, our views, and our results with everybody interested. We don't spin our results. Ever.

/04 strategy

My strategy
had three parts.

The three barriers led to a three-part marketing strategy. Every decision, every metric, and every media choice that followed traced back to one of them.

part 01

Get noticed more

Increase brand salience, fame, and mental availability.

part 02

Be liked more

Increase brand affect and build a stronger emotional connection with the brand.

part 03

Be easier to buy

Make it easier to find and buy online and in retail.

/05 decisions

What the strategy
meant in practice.

Here are some of the bigger calls that fell out of the three-part strategy. Every one of them maps back to get noticed, be liked, or be easier to buy.

Focused on The National Lottery as the masterbrand

Our product brands had been playing first fiddle, competing against each other with different colours, taglines, and personalities. By doubling down on one masterbrand, we focused our budget, media spend, and other resources.

Sharpened positioning to "a ticket to dream"

We are not simply selling jackpots. We are selling a ticket to dream. People don't expect to win. They hope they will. They buy the chance to pleasantly dream today about what they would do if they won. The dream isn't exciting if you don't have a ticket.

Brought back "It could be you"

Dropped in 2013. Bringing it back was seen by some as a risky move for a new CMO. But research showed the tagline was famous, liked, and prompted people to dream. The gold was in the past.

Doubled down on distinctive brand assets

Our ability to build DBAs is one of our strongest capabilities. Our CEO stood up in front of the entire company and explained why they matter in a world where attention is scarce and media is fragmented. And he showed it with numbers.

Measured ROI properly

The very first thing I did in my starting week was kick off an econometric modelling project. For every €1 we invested in advertising, we got €2.68 back in profit. We doubled down on the most effective channels and cut the least effective ones.

Measured and grew mental availability

Not just awareness. We measured Category Entry Points. Which buying cues does the brand attach to, and how strongly? That sharpens creative, media placement, and messaging all at once.

Invested in Good Causes

The business had stopped talking about Good Causes for seven years because it didn't drive sales directly. Our intrinsic motivations research showed that knowing some of your money goes back into the community keeps people open to playing again.

Improved the journey online and in retail

Shopper research in stores. Rebuilt mobile app journey. Targeted non-customers with the language to ask for the right game on the right day.

/06 underneath the work

The theory, and
how we taught it.

Two frameworks sat underneath the decisions we made. The first explains how we grew mental availability. The second explains why Good Causes matters even though it doesn't drive sales directly. Then the tools we built to make sure the whole team understood them.

Mental availability

The Category Entry Point we built around

A CEP is a buying cue. We picked one, measured it, and built the creative and media around it. The CEP we chose was "when I dream about changing my life".

Dream about
changing
my life
The National
Lottery
Buy a
ticket
2-3x Irish adults think about changing their lives per week
74% think of The National Lottery when they do
62% bought a ticket last time they thought about it
Good Causes

The science behind why we buy

Purchases are prompted by cues. The brain runs a feedback loop that decides whether each purchase was worth it. Knowing a bit of your money goes back to the community keeps you open to the brand after a loss.

01 / cue

A habit, an internal thought, or an external prompt triggers a purchase decision

02 / behaviour

Consumer behaviour is goal-orientated

03 / goal

The goal is the excitement of dreaming about winning

04 / feedback

Feelings train the brain on whether the decision was good or not

↻ the loop begins again
Knowing about Good Causes helps people feel good about their decision even if they lose. That keeps them open to the brand when the cue fires again.
Building the team

Online training modules

We built in-house marketing effectiveness training for the whole team, with a quiz at the end of each module. Available to everybody in the company. Even finance colleagues wanted to do it.

Consumer behaviour Brand management Mental availability Drivers of effectiveness
Industry recognition

AIM Awards, 2021

Won Best Advertising Campaign at Ireland's All Ireland Marketing Awards. The same campaign that beat nearly every UK brand on System1's creative benchmarks.

Best advertising campaign
/07 the metrics pyramid

Not all metrics
are equal.

Most marketing teams live at the base of the pyramid, counting activity and outputs, because those are the easiest things to measure. We worked all five levels. Click any level to see the metrics we used.

L1Commercial outcomes
L2Customer behaviour
L3Memory metrics
L4Comms response
L5Activity and outputs
Level 1 / commercial outcomes

The money metrics

What the CFO and Board actually care about. Revenue, profit, margin, return on investment. If marketing can't connect to these, it's a cost centre.

What we measured
  • Revenue: our first ever €1 billion year in 2021, a 19% increase vs 2019
  • Year-on-year growth tracked against the highest in the history of the business
  • Reported to the Board, not just to marketing
Level 2 / customer behaviour

What people actually do

Lifetime value, purchase frequency, retention, churn. Leading indicators of level one. If customers are behaving the way you want, the revenue follows.

What we measured
  • Frequent players: grew from 740,000 in 2019 to 803,000 in 2021, a 9% increase
Level 3 / memory metrics

What lives in their heads

Mental availability, brand affect, distinctive brand assets, category entry points. The bridge between what you put in the world and what people do.

What we measured
  • Brand equity tracked across 10 measures, every one up between Apr 2020 and Sep 2021
  • Distinctive brand asset linkage: logo 95%, "It Could Be You" tagline 87%
  • Category Entry Point "when I dream about changing my life": 74% think of The National Lottery
  • Good Causes sentiment: 46% to 68% over the period
Level 4 / comms response

How people react to the work

Ad recall, creative quality scores, click-through, engagement. Useful, but mid-stream. They tell you if an asset is working, not if the business is moving.

What we measured
  • Marketing ROI: €2.68 profit returned for every €1 we invested, measured via econometric modelling
  • System1 star ratings benchmarked against the best advertisers in the world
  • Our rising stars rating of 4.6 out of 5, beaten only by Cadbury in a UK-wide test
  • Won Best Advertising Campaign at the 2021 AIM Awards
Level 5 / activity and outputs

Proof that money was spent

Impressions, reach, followers, traffic, frequency. Necessary for reporting, and often confused with results.

What we measured
  • Reach and frequency tracked, but never treated as the success metric
  • Output metrics used to diagnose why levels 3 or 4 moved, not to claim wins
  • Our reporting headlines were always levels 1 to 3
/08 results

Business and
brand success.

The revenue growth didn't come from price increases or increased distribution. It didn't come from sales promotions or high jackpots. It came from a brand that had regained its footing, and from customers who played more often because they felt more connected to it.

€1bn First ever billion-euro year, a 19% increase vs 2019
+9% Frequent players: 740,000 in 2019 to 803,000 in 2021
€2.68 Profit returned for every €1 invested in advertising

Revenue growth

€ millions / level 1 metric

Frequent players

Thousands / level 2 metric

A brand for me

% agree, 2017 to 2021 / level 3 metric

Good Causes sentiment

% recently heard about contributions / level 3 metric

Brand equity moved on every measure

% agree, Apr 2020 vs Sep 2021 / level 3 metric

Distinctive brand assets

% spontaneous linkage, May 2022 / level 3 metric

System1 creative benchmarks

Average star rating, 2021 / level 4 metric