Show the price didn't change
When someone asks what else could explain your result, answer with a number.
When you tell your boss a campaign worked, expect one question. Was it the campaign, or was it something else? A price cut, a promotion, a new shop stocking you, a good summer.
The best answer is a number. "We didn't change the price" asks the boss to trust you. "Our price was €3 before the campaign and €3 during it" lets them see for themselves.
Does it matter? In award papers it goes with winning. We compared 96 papers that won an effectiveness award with 87 that entered and weren't awarded. 78% of the awarded papers answered three or more other explanations with a number or a chart (75 of 96). 45% of the others did (39 of 87).
of awarded papers (75 of 96)
of papers not awarded (39 of 87)
Share of papers that answered three or more other explanations for their result with a number or a chart. 183 papers entered for one effectiveness award over five years, 2011 to 2018. Some answers point to a model or a source and show no number. Leave those out and it is about two thirds against under four in ten.
So before you present a result, do three things.
- Write down what else could explain it.
- Put a number beside each one.
- If you have no number for one, say so.
Marie Curie's award paper shows the habit. It lists what else could explain its result and takes them one at a time. For the weather, it went to the Met Office's records.
Two cautions. Some answers we counted point to a model or a source and show no number. Leave those out and it is about two thirds against under four in ten. And this shows what awarded papers do more often. It doesn't show that this is why they were awarded.
Sam